In 2021, the existing mathematical model of the SARS-CoV-2 spread in Ukraine was improved and configured. Evaluations of the effectiveness of vaccines in the prevention of hospitalization were carried out. 11 analytical reports and forecasts concerning mathematical modeling of the spread of the epidemic in Ukraine were published and used for the analysis and making management decisions by the Public Health Center of the Ministry of Health and the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.
In 2022, the assessment of excess mortality in Ukraine due to the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic from March 2020 and January 2022 was carried out. It showed an increase in the number of deaths from all causes to 209,000. A web interface for the analysis and visualization of epidemic and demographic data was developed. Five analytical reports and forecasts concerning mathematical modeling of the spread of the epidemic in Ukraine were published.
In 2023, мathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases and numerical algorithms for their implementation were developed. An optimization algorithm for calibrating unknown parameters of mathematical models based on statistical data was created and implemented. Some methods for estimating excess mortality in Ukraine due to the COVID-19 epidemic, taking into account gender-specific and demographic data, were presented.
