IMMSP - Publications. Mathematical Machines and Systems 2019 #2

ukrainian version

Mathematical Machines and Systems. 2019 #2

ABSTRACTS

COMPUTER SYSTEMS

UDC 623.764
Sapaty P.S. Investigating Nuclear War Dangers under Spatial Grasp Paradigm. Mathematical machines and systems. 2019. N 2. P. 3–15.

The paper describes applicability of the developed Spatial Grasp Technology (SGT) for describing patterns of international relations that can hint on probability of nuclear wars, while applying them worldwide in parallel and distributed mode. These recursive patterns in high-level language can be regularly launched and spatially matched from any world points, allowing us to investigate world security more efficiently than in a traditional centralised way. SGT is ideologically based on quite different, holistic, world vision directly as integral shapes and patterns rather than traditional parts-to-whole models. Its key element is high-level recursive Spatial Grasp Language (SGL) which can express distributed spaces and operations in them in a way understandable to both manned and unmanned components. The spatial scenarios in SGL are much shorter than in other programming languages as the approach effectively hides most of traditional system management routines into intelligent interpreters of SGL, which can be networked worldwide, thus avoiding their explicit programming. This allows us to grasp top semantics of what to be done (in economy, industrial ecosystems, battlefields, robotic swarms, missile defence, etc.) at runtime and ahead of it, with SGL scenarios freely moving, modifying and replicating in distributed environments while keeping full control over distributed physical, virtual or combined spaces. The paper shows diversity and complexity of international relations, current world distribution of nuclear weapons, explains key features of SGT and SGL, also provides examples of international patterns that can potentially lead to nuclear war, with their implementation in SGL and worldwide search. SGT can effectively convert the whole world into an intelligent spatial computer self-supporting global security. Figs.: 13. Refs.: 19 titles.
UDC 528.06
Alpert S.I. Application of methods of data combination under the classification of satellite images. Mathematical machines and systems. 2019. № 2. P. 16–26.
Solution of different scientific problems using hyperspectral satellite images, generally includes a classification procedure. It is one of the most important procedures used in remote probing. The most accurate results can be provided with the help of controlled classification methods. Important information is obtained from different spectral channels. The process of solution of different scientific, ecological and practical problems using hyperspectral satellite images always includes a procedure of image classification. Image classification methods were considered in the paper. These methods are based on the theory of evidence and they can be applied to hyperspectral and multispectral satellite images. It was noted, that combination of conflicting evidence bodies is one of the most difficult problems.The following combination rules were taken into consideration: Yager’s rule, Inagaki’s rule and Zhang’s combination rule. It was shown, that these combination rules can deal with imprecise, incomplete and vague information. The Yager’s rule assigns the masses of intersections of conflicting sets, which create an empty set in the intersection, to the base set. Non-null mass of the empty set is generally distributed among the elements of the frame of discernment. But a correlation among evidences is not taken into account. Zhang’s combination rule considers intersection of sets and gives it a certain measure. This measure is defined as the ratio of the power of the intersection of two sets to the product of power of these sets. Inagaki’s combination rule also provides a special formula for basic masses calculation. It was stated, that Inagaki’s rule subsumes both Dempster’s rule and Yager’s rule. Main advantages of these methods were analyzed in the work. Some usage examples of the given combination rules and basic masses calculation rules are also considered in the work. Yager’s combination rule, Inagaki’s rule and Zhang’s combination rule can be applied in hyperspectral satellite images classification and in the solution of thematic tasks. Таbl.: 3. Refs.: 21 titles.

INFORMATION AND TELECOMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY

UDC 681.3

Yashchenko V.O. Information technologies in life safety support in the context of increasing international and state terrorism. Mathematical machines and systems. 2019. N2. P. 27–42.

The paper presents a brief overview of information technologies and life safety systems in the context of increasing international and state terrorism. Considered: some issues of life safety – as a science about protecting a person from negative impacts; Protection of the population from terrorist influences as one of the main tasks which includes precautionary measures, training, preventive inspection, protection, neutralization; Control and intelligence systems to identify the intentions of terrorists; Artificial Intelligence. Special hopes are placed on artificial intelligence in the anti-terrorism effort and terrorist organizations. Such systems require processing of large amounts of information. The study of large amounts of data is hampered by the human factor, since experts use information processing. In this regard, technologies related to the automatic intelligent processing of large arrays are becoming particularly relevant. To ensure the safety of life of the population, it is necessary on the basis of existing computer systems and fundamentally new systems based on artificial intelligence technology to create databases and knowledge distributed throughout the country and combined into one powerful intellectual base of information security of the state and its people. Such an intellectual base of information security of the state and its population should have a strong artificial intelligence, super-fast action. The basis, the engine of such a base, an intellectual information processor can be a system created on the basis of the project “Thinking computer or electronic brain for robots and intelligent systems”. The paper briefly discusses the goals and objectives of the project, the technological basis of the project and its benefits. Figs.: 4. Refs.: 13 titles.
UDC 004.9:004.75

Lysetsky Yu.M., Kalbazov D.I. Internet of Things technology. Mathematical machines and systems. 2019. N 2. P. 43–50.

Internet of Things technology is a combination of devices and tools for data collection, transmitting, processing and further analysis. Main components of this technology are sensor with а transmitter, base station, network server and application server. The sensor collects data from the environment and periodically transmits it to the base station via radio module. A distinctive feature of IoT-technology is the usage of wireless sensors with transmitters which have extremely low levels of power consumption, and which operation terms can be measured over the years. It was the low power consumption that made the IoT-technology implementation possible. When there is a need to connect many IoT-devices which cover a large territory one can use existing cellular networks or Low Power Wide Area Network (LPWAN) – a global low power network. Devices of LoRaWAN standard, which is one of LPWAN protocols, can work autonomously up to several years. It makes them ideal for usage in remote places or energy-dependent systems. The network server aggregates sensor data then extracts useful data and transmits it to the application server. The application server is an analytical center interpreting sensor data and making it available for end users. There exist cloud services providing application server functions. IoT-technologies are successfully used abroad, especially in manufacturing, agriculture, transport, municipal development projects. IoT-technologies are not yet mainstream in Ukraine as occasional projects have no serious impact on spreading IoT-technologies on a national scale. At the moment prospects of their further development are rather situational. Figs.: 2. Refs.: 4 titles.
UDC 004.6:528

Khurtsylava K.V., Lytvynov V.A., Maistrenko S.Ya. Comparison of some spatial-temporal models of geodata applying to the organization of GIS information resources in the field of public administration (in the context of forestland). Mathematical machines and systems. 2019. N 2. P. 51–62.

Geographic (spatial) data is the main or, may be, predominate part of content of information resources using for decision support data in the field of public administration. The conceptual basis for the presentation of such data and the description of their changes over time is spatial-temporal models (ST-models). The purpose of this paper is comparative analysis of ST-models, namely, snapshot models, least common geometries model and pseudo-object model applying to geodata of the public administration type in the context of subject field of forestland management sphere. To perform the comparative analysis as the basis of “benchmarking” the state changes are considered as the set of “divisions” included in one forest quarter, during 4 cycles (years) and the characteristics of describing these changes by selected ST-models. The indices describing the dynamics of vertices (points) number characterizing the required memory resource and the volumes of communication tables of components (recombination tables), which characterize additional time-consuming processing of geodata are analyzed. On the basis of the obtained results, taking into account additional literary data, the advantages and disadvantages of the selected models are discussed in case of their application to the geodata of the chosen type. The simulation we have given, gives answers to the most general questions about mechanism and properties of the considered models and in this respect more illustrates the practical technique for comparative evaluation. For specific applications, it is necessary to specify expected amount of data, the frequency of changing, the character and frequency of queries for concrete applications. Regarding to the area of forest management, the current update of the location data is carried out with an annual interval and so far adopted by the most simple to implement, a snapshot model. The analysis we have carried out, taking into account specific properties of forestland geodata, gives some reasons for choosing least common geometries model as basis for future development of forestland management tasks. Таbl.: 2. Figs.: 11. Refs.: 10 titles.
UDC 681.513

Brovarets О.О., Kovbasa V.P. Decision support technologies in conditions of uncertainty under technological processes designing. Mathematical machines and systems. 2019. N 2. P. 63–70.

Modern agriculture involves the implementation of a particular technological operation, according to the appropriate map-task, which is developed pre-based on diverse information. Knowledge of a certain structure of soil cover variability, obtained using information and technical systems of local operational monitoring of the agrobiological state of agricultural lands, allows us to adopt effective operational decisions for efficient management of agrobiological potential of agricultural lands. Obviously, under such conditions, there is a need for fundamentally new approaches to agricultural production, which is to ensure the proper quality of technological operations. The quality of the implementation of technological operations is an integral indicator of the efficiency of production of agricultural products within the agrobiological field. The necessary quality of implementation of the basic technological processes in plant growing is provided by the integrated information and technical systems of operational monitoring of the agrobiological state of agricultural lands. The task is achieved by using the information and technical system of operational monitoring of the soil environment of the structure to determine the conductive characteristics of the soil environment. It gives the new prospects for the development of organic farming using such “intelligent” machines. The purpose of this study is to determine the critical loading at the loss of stability by thin-walled working electrodes made in the form of working electrodes of various shapes (thin-walled solid, three-spit and four-spindle discs with different thickness of the rim) of information and technical system of local-operational monitoring of agrobiological state of soil environment of different configurations with one-side compression. Figs.: 2. Refs.: 38 titles.
SIMULATION AND MANAGEMENT

UDC 528.9
Maystrenko S.Ya., Khalchenkov O.V., Dontsov-Zagreba T.O., Bespalov V.P., Khurtsylava K.V., Polonsky O.O., Kovalets I.V. Web-system of atmospheric pollution forecasting in Ukraine on the basis of models chain of weather forecast and atmospheric dispersion. Mathematical machines and systems. 2019. N 2. P. 71–79.
In the paper the information technology is suggested, it allows predicting the atmospheric distribution of pollutants resulting from emergency emissions in Ukraine based on a chain of models of numerical weather forecasting and atmospheric dispersion, as well as web technologies for setting input data, obtaining and visualization of the results. A pilot version of the web-system of atmospheric pollution forecasting following accidental release in Ukraine was created and installed for test operation. The system allows calculations of dispersion up to 3000 km distances from the source. The system can be configured to operate in cloud infrastructure. The atmospheric dispersion model CALPUFF is configured to calculate the transport of three main types of pollution: aerosols, gases and passive tracer. The specified values of the parameters describe the dry deposition of gases, the typical geometric characteristics of the pollutants simulated as particles, as well as the typical parameters of wet deposition. The users of the system were provided with the possibilities of visualization of the simulation results, such as spatial- temporal distributions of concentrations and deposition in cartographic form and in the form of time-plots of concentrations and depositions in grid cells. If it is necessary to output results at specific points that do not coincide with the grid cell centers, the user can specify a number of point receptors for output of the results. In addition to the standard characteristics, the users of the system are provided with the possibility of output of simulation results, which can be compared with the normative characteristics of pollution, namely, daily average and maximum concentrations of pollutants. The developed information technology could be used in the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, the State Emergency Situations Service, and other agencies that require detailed data of hydrometeorological analysis and forecasting. Developed services could be also provided to a wide range of environmental researchers within the framework of the European Cloud Initiative. Таbl.: 1. Figs.: 4. Refs.: 9 titles.
UDC 004.832.2
Yakovlev Yu.S., Tymashov O.O. Principles of organization and application of seminatural modeling. Mathematical machines and systems. 2019. N 2. P. 80–89.
Seminatural modelling is a modelling with real equipment at which the system part is modelled, and other part is real. Application of such method of modelling becomes necessary when it is not possible to describe work of some elements of a system mathematically. The rapid increase in the volume of incoming and processed information leads to significant changes in the methods and methods of information analysis and requires the introduction of effective methods and intelligent technologies of the user support decision-making system (DSS). At present, there is no single generally accepted definition of DSS, since the structure of the system directly depends on the tasks for which it is used, as well as on the available knowledge, data and information on the basis of which decisions are made. The general principles of building DSS are clarified and one of the variants of the system’s structural scheme for semi-natural modeling is proposed, the main problems of building the knowledge base are highlighted. The methods of analytical review and selection of characteristic features of semi-natural modeling in relation to the architectural and structural organization of DSS and the general principles of the system are used. The considered method for constructing a DSS and its basic properties provide a reduction in the time and cost of development, especially when the decision maker makes a decision in real time. In the process of semi-natural modeling, the advantages of mathematical and natural modeling are successfully combined, and the optimal interaction between computational and full-scale experiments can be achieved. Currently, methods of semi-natural modeling are effectively used in the design of various automatic control systems. Fig.: 1. Refs.: 13 titles.

UDC 681.3.06
Yatsyshyn A.V., Perevaryukha A.Yu., Mykkhailov V.V. Development, verification and scenario experiments in the trophodynamics aggregated model of a large water reservoir. Mathematical machines and systems. 2019. N 2. P. 90–100.
This work continues a series of our studies on the analysis of the nonlinear dynamics of complex environmental processes by computational methods. In the new work we consider construction of a balance model of accumulation of organic substances in a lake, verified according to real data. We explain abrupt changes in the content of nitrogen and phosphorus with the prediction of the further development of eutrophication at the current level of nutrient pressure of nitrogen and phosphorus, caused by anthropogenic factor. Changing the trophic status of the lake has an impact on the well-being of the reproduction of hydrobionts and may cause changes in the composition of the fauna, promote the emergence of introduced, specially planted biological species in the environment. A modified version of the model of replenishment of bioresources in the calculation of survival for an early ontogenesis of fish in oxygen supply problems is suggested, which can be followed by an unpleasant phenomenon of water “algal bloom”. The eutrophication model uses empirical dependences of the decomposition and precipitation of organic compounds in the lake. Modification of the survival model of fish generation, depending on the growth rate of the young, is based on making competitive corrections of von Bertalanffy equation. The iterative aggregated model was adjusted on the real data of observations of changes in the hydrological parameters of water reservoir in China, which were subject to an increase in the runoff of excess nutrient elements. Computational experiments showed the time of transition of the water reservoir to the hypertrophic status at a given level of nitrogen and phosphorus inflow, and the effect of undesirable state on the reproduction of autochthonous and alien species of hydrobionts. Fig.: 1. Refs.: 19 titles.
UDC 004.891.2
Kovalenko O.Е. Simulation of the loading of the network infrastructure for situation management systems. Mathematical machines and systems. 2019. N 2. P. 101–110.
Situation management is an aimed individual or collective activity associated with the recognition, explanation and prediction of situations that have arisen or may occur in dynamic systems, and the impact on them using the appropriate concepts, models and technologies. Such activities are carried out in situation management systems – organizational and technical complexes supporting management decisions based on integrated monitoring of factors influencing the processes occurring in the management environment using modern information technologies. The content of the processes in the systems of situation management is determined by specific problems and tasks of situation management that require solving. To ensure the effective operation of situation management systems, it is necessary to organize a productive environment for their operation. The main purpose of situation management systems is to provide the participants of the situation management processes with organizational and technological services to perform the functions assigned to them. Therefore, situation management systems can be considered as queuing systems. In this paper, formalized models of description of situation management systems and their implementation in the form of situation rooms are proposed. The task of analyzing the effective loading on the network of the situation room in terms of queuing theory has been formulated and simulation modeling of the processing of applications for service from the automated workplaces of the situation room under various servicing disciplines has been carried out. Based on the analysis of simulation results, the temporal indicators of effective loading of the network infrastructure of the situation room are determined. Figs.: 10. Refs.: 7 titles.
UDC 621.771:08.531.717.521

Grabovsky G.G., Ievlev M.G. Management of longitudinal sheet thickness variation on rolling stands using the effect of speed asymmetry. Mathematical machines and systems. 2019. N 2. P. 111–120.

The article deals with the problem of ensuring the accuracy of geometric dimensions of rolling stands. One of the ways to solve this problem is to reduce the longitudinal sheets thickness variation. An effective way to reduce the longitudinal thickness variation on stands equipped with hydraulic pressure devices (HPD) is to control the thickness and longitudinal thickness variation by changing the roll solution during the rolling process using the HPD. However, most of the existing rolling stands are not equipped with HPD. Therefore, the actual question is the use of other methods for controlling the geometric dimensions of rolled products. One of the effective channels for controlling the geometry of rolled metal by controlling the speed of the main drives of rolling stands with an individual roll drive can be a channel that uses the effect of speed asymmetry (SA), which reduces the rolling force while increasing the mismatch of the roll speeds. Since the reduction of the rolling force affects both the thickness and the transverse profile of the strip, the use of the SA effect has been proposed in a number of solutions for the automatic regulation of the transverse and longitudinal thickness variations. The article provides a mathematical description of the change in the thickness of the rolled stock under the action of the mismatch of speeds of the work rolls, and a mathematical modeling of the process has been performed. The simulation results are confirmed by studies of the rolling process with SA at a stand 3600 of the Azovstal metallurgical combine. An extended block diagram of a system of regulating the thickness variation of rolled products with SA is given. The studies and industrial approbation allow us to conclude about the effectiveness of using SA to control the longitudinal sheets thickness variation on rolling stands, and the dependencies which are given in the article should be used in SA control systems. Figs.: 2. Refs.: 8 titles.
UDC 519.769

Rzayev R.R., Babayeva S.T., Babyaev T.A. Assessment of financial stability of commercial banks in Azerbaijan using fuzzy multifactor assessment methods. Mathematical machines and systems. 2019. N 2. P. 121–130.

Under present-day conditions of market economy, characterized by increased competition, decrease in the level of sustainability of commercial banks, the emergence of crisis phenomena in the banking sector of economy, the permanent change in the external conditions in which commercial banks operate, require an appropriate response from the management of commercial banks – detailed analysis and in-depth assessment of their financial stability, finding the ways to improve it. The paper considers a fuzzy approach to assessing the financial stability of commercial banks and financial indicators group that are used to calculate financial ratios as significant influence factors on the bank financial stability. At the same time, the choice of financial ratios is dictated by the desire to establish a strict correlation of the financial condition of commercial banks from these factors. Therefore, not trying to invent new ratios to assess liquidity, profitability, capital adequacy, liabilities asset quality, the paper used a set of coefficients most commonly used in various methods for selected financial indicators of banks' stability. The fuzzy methods used to process them were previously approved by the authors for hypothetical banks, i.e. banks characterized by arbitrary data of financial indicators. In this case, four leading commercial banks of Azerbaijan are considered, the activities of which are characterized by real data of financial indicators for the reporting period. As a result of the application of the proposed fuzzy methods of multivariate assessment, estimates of the financial sustainability of the declared banks of Azerbaijan were obtained and, accordingly, two somewhat ranking orders were made. The difference in orders is easily eliminated by optimizing the membership functions of fuzzy sets describing qualitative evaluation criteria – acceptable levels of normative values of financial ratios. Таbl.: 3. Refs.: 10 titles.
QUALITY, RELIABILITY AND CERTIFICATION OF COMPUTER TECHNIQUE AND SOFTWARE

UDC 621.3.019.3
Fedukhin O.V. Expert assessment of the level of computer systems’ dependability. Mathematical machines and systems. 2019. N 2. P. 131–147.
The article deals with the use of the attribute model of dependability (AMD) for a quantitative assessment of the achieved level of dependability of the developed computer systems. The idea of the name “attribute model” is borrowed from philosophy, where the attribute name has the attribute model of the concept “matter”. In our case, this name we extend to the concept of “dependable computer systems” (DCS) and formulate an attribute model as a complex property that includes the following attributes: reliability, availability, maintainability, reliability, survivability, functional security, confidentiality and integrity. Of all the measured attributes of AMD in recent years, the most attention is paid to the attributes readiness, functional safety, vitality and confidentiality, which is associated with the ever-increasing influence of information technologies on all spheres of activity and existence of mankind. As an alternative, two models are considered – vector and scalar. A vector model is a set of vectors (characteristics) that evaluate individual properties of warranty (non-failure operation, availability, survivability, maintainability, reliability, confidentiality, integrity, functional safety). The scalar model is a generalized (integral) assessment of the level of dependability. The scalar model is based on the metric approach, which builds the most detailed model of dependability, as a hierarchy of primary and secondary properties and their characteristics, estimated by expert means or by calculations or measurements. Next, the convolution of metrics using an analytical model (functional) of a reasonable form is performed. The desire to achieve the highest possible level of dependability should be justified, since it is associated with large expenditures of funds and times for the development and production of the system, which will inevitably affect the cost increase. Таbl.: 10. Refs.: 33 titles.