Сreated the hydrological module for the European SSDM “RODOS” in the case of radiation accident which was developed on the instructions of the Radiation defence Department of Commission of European Companies together with more than 20 institutes of the west European countries.

Creation the newest decision-making systems for saving and improvements of environment, which were used for reengineering of European SSMD “RODOS” (“JRODOS”).

Development the new assimilation monitoring data algorithms in prognostic mathematical models and newest SSDM which were used in the water systems of “RODOS” SSDM on the basis of integration of “POSEIDON” model in the system and which allowed considerably to promote efficiency of calculations and accuracy of environment modeling; conducted testing of hydrological module on the example of Vistula river basin.

Making a regional subsystem of processing data of ecological monitoring and prognostications of the Dnieper river basin condition (it is introduced in EMM of Ukraine (Emergency Measures Ministry of Ukraine).

Elaboration a program of atmospheric transference calculations as a result of the ejections from Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) on the basis of perfection of the “ММ5-ІPMMS” system of the meteorological prognostication due to assimilation of these measurements.

Creation a prototype program of sdecision making support systems on the basis of a new mathematical model of oil distribution at the emergency ejections in the sea.

Conducted the modeling of the “Archa” shelter behavior in critical conditions, in the result of which the changes have been produced in the construction of the Chernobyl NPP shelter.

Elaboration “ММ5-ІPMM” and “WRF-Ukraine” systems of weather prognostication over territory of Ukraine; creation a statistical post-processor of data processing with the use of neural networks for the increase of exactness of prognoses of the ground temperature.

Development of new numeral models of 2D hydro-ecodynamic, on the basis of which was done evaluation of transboundary impacts of the channel Danube-Black Sea.

Extending existing subsystems and creation new one of monitoring system of the State water management – Gosvodhoz – for monitoring data processing and prognostication of pollution effects and changes of ecological conditions of water resources; these are conducted by the regional laboratories on the Black Sea basins, on Tisza and Danube rivers with a specialized implementation of GIS-means of visualization.

Elaboration of methods of mastering of monitoring information, based on the use of 3DVAR technology, in weather forecasting systems and river runoff for the SSDM for responding to catastrophic flooding.

Updating of mathematical models of transport of radionuclide, on the basis of which were held the analyses of impact of erosion of bottom silt to the radioactive water contamination near the city of Kyiv during construction of the projected ring road through the Kyiv Reservoir.

Development the technology of operational numerical meteorological fields prediction in Ukraine in detail for the region of South-Ukrainian (SU) NPP, which provides real-time weather reports. These reports will be used as the base for prediction of water temperature at intake point of Tashlitsky Reservoir.

Development of the methodology for long-term simulation of distributed hydrological model for Dnepr river sub-catchments basin on the results of meteorological scenarios downscaling. Models for predicting long-term ecological regime Dnepr-Bug estuary are developed.

Development of parallel model codes for the high-performance calculation systems predicting the consequences of emergency situations in the coastal waters with the installation for the Odessa Bay of the Black Sea.

Grid-technologies have been developed to combine hydro-meteorological and pollution transport mathematical models into cascades; an example implementation utilizing nuclear accident response models to be introduced for Rivne NPP region.

Developed software system of numerical modeling and forecasting of floods in the district of Kyiv, which is implemented in the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center.

Making the choice of IPCC/(GCM)-specification scenarios for climate change in the Carpathian region using numerical meteorological model WRF-Ukraine and methodology of its combination with a distributed hydrological model.

Creating a parallel version of not hydrostatic model and numerically investigated the mechanisms of transformation of internal waves on the submarine slopes, the possibility of the existence of a new scenario, large-amplitude waves overturning on slopes, when the shear instability is the main mechanism of waves transformation.

Elaboration automated technology and specialized GIS-applications of mapping materials processing; classificatory of symbols of forest regulation and the software of its use for the systems of automation forming cartographic materials of objects of the forest regulation also were worked out.

A forecasting study of radioactive contamination of air and marine environment around nuclear power plants Fukushima-1 after the accident on the basis of mathematical modeling using circuit calculation models of the meteorological fields in atmospheric transport of radionuclides, three-dimensional hydrodynamics and transport of radionuclides to the coastal zone, the dynamics of marine pollution due to atmospheric attacks on the surface of the sea and direct discharges from nuclear power plants on the coastal zone was conducted. Comparison of forecasts of the cesium-137 concentration according to the data measurements showed a high predictive quality of modeling results. IMMSP NASU works of the modeling of consequences of the nuclear power plant Fukushima-1 are highly appreciated by IAEA and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

The Grid technology for available calculation storm conditions in the coastal zone of the Black Sea and the coastal state in anthropogenic influences on the basis of the unification of parallelized numerical models of waves, two-dimensional flows, sediment transport overhaul of the coastal seas was developed. The results what were introduced by the Russian Federation to design the coast protection of the Olympic Park Sochi-2014.

A testing based on the historical data models of hydrological processes on the water reservoirs of the basin and Dnieper-Bug estuary model regime for the task of forecasting the impact of climate change on the water regime of the Dnieper River Basin was conducted. Three-dimensional model of the Black Sea on the basis of numerical model on the unstructured grids SELFE, which contains a detailed description of Dnieper-Bug estuary was constructed; the calculations of the regime of the sea and estuary were conducted.

A modern system of numerical forecasting of the flooding in a flood zone based on the numerical solution of equations of shallow water on unstructured triangular grids was developed. The model is calibrated and tested for the Kiev Reservoir areas, Dnieper River near Kyiv, Dniester river near Mogilev-Podolsky and Desna River near Chernihiv. Software systems forecasting flooding areas with convenient GIS interfaces implemented in the Hydrometeorological Institute of Ukraine was developed.

The technology of models specification of global circulation using regional meteorological and hydrological distributed models for forecasting the probability of catastrophic rainfall and floods for different scenarios of climate changes in the Carpathian region was developed. The results were highly appreciated on thematic seminars at the Institute of Water Resources, USA, NASA (the U.S. space agency), NOAA (USA hydrometeorological agency). After discussion in the U.S. Department of State these works are included in the priorities of the U.S. scientific cooperation with Ukraine by American side.

An improved numerical hydrodynamic two-dimensional model was developed in IMMSP NASU and was used for solving the challenges of forecasting areas of flooding, particularly in the System of Dnieper reservoirs and on other rivers of Ukraine during the spring floods, and marine coastal areas under the tidal and wind surges. The calculation of the consequences of the Kiev hydroelectric dam break under the condition of a catastrophic flood in 1931 year, which was made possible by the improvement of this model.

Modern models of flood forecasting and prediction of radionuclide transfer in the Pripyat River basin for different scenarios of potential emergencies at the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant, located on the banks of the River Stir were implemented.

There were developed grid technologies and new software for cascade implementing of meteorological and hydrological models, scenary calculations of formation and distribution of floods in catchments of Ukraine taking into account climate changes.

There were developed and program implemented highly productive parallel algorithms of modeling of pollutants distribution in atmospheric and aquatic environments. The results of works are using in Ministry of Emergencies of Ukraine, Ukrainian Hydrometcenter, Ukraine Ministry of Environment and Water Management Agency of Ukraine.

The estimates of changes of hydrological regime of the Black Sea and its level according to climate change scenary for the first time using mathematical models of the Black Sea and the Turkish Straits were obtained. There were identified potential areas of flooding in the floodplain of Dnipro River – Kyiv city and in the floodplain of the Dniester River – Mogyliv-Podilsky under the climate changes.

There were developed models of the coverings of the Antarctic seas based on three-dimensional numerical model of shelf seas hidrotermodynamic. There were described the processes of formation of needle ice and brine discharge.

Algorithmic prototype version of computer system prediction of contamination of Stir River based on cascade models of atmospheric distribution of radionuclides, rainfall-runoff and radionuclides transportation in the river systems was created.

There were developed software means for adjustments (changes) in a geographic data forest of Ukraine.

An integrated automated system for forecasting weather conditions and atmospheric distribution of radionuclides for use in decision support of real time in case of accidents at nuclear power plants was firstly developed.

Grid technologies of cascade of meteorological and hydrological models implementation for scenario calculations of formation and spread flooding in Ukraine watersheds in accordance of climate changes and spred of contamination in city areas were developed.

With a help of chamber model transfer of radionuclides in marine environment, POSEIDON-R, developed with the participation of IMMSP NAS of Ukraine, predicted calculations of the state of the marine environment over the matter of the accident at the nuclear power plant Fukushima-1 by 2040 were first made, which showed that the concentration of cesium-137 in fish and shellfish reach its previous value in the years 2015-2017.

The estimates of climate changes in the characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Ukrainian Carpathians, in particular, in the area of ​​the Carpathian basin of Dnister, using the method of statistical downscaling were received. It is shown that in the next 30 years the frequency of 100-year rainfall will increase by almost twice as large, and the value of daily precipitation amounts corresponding to the 100-year recurrence increase in 10%. A new numerical model of circulation and water quality in the Dnister basin was constructed.

During the study of internal waves in the ocean and their impact on underwater structures and platforms, incomplete self-similarity of dynamics of single second mode waves at High Reynolds numbers was revealed for the first time. An essentially new mechanism of breather generation under the interaction of the second mode wave with violent changes of bottom topography was described.

The numerical prognostic system for calculating currents, temperature, salinity, ice thickness, concentration and speed skating ice cover, which is adapted to the shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula and the western part of the Bellinshauzen sea was developed. The practical application of the developed system will give an opportunity to optimize operational and research work at the Academician Vernadsky station.

Calculations of the Danube estuary regime based on a distributed model for watershed downscaling of climate change scenarios of the 21st century were perform for the first time. The estimates of climate changes in the characteristics of extreme rainfall in the Ukrainian Carpathians, in particular, in the area of ​​the Carpathian Danube Basin were given. The assessments of the impact of climate changes on the Danube estuary state were shown.

New models of radioactivity distribution in the marine environment, including the model of transfer activities through the food chain from the bottom deposits were developed. The models were verified on the base of data of the accident at the nuclear power plant “Fukushima 2” in the framework of the IAEA «Modaria». New automated algorithms for volume identification of atmospheric emissions in case of accidents at nuclear power plants based on the assimilation of these measurements, including measuring the dose were created. The models and algorithms implemented in decision support system during nuclear accidents RODOS, which develops with the support of the European Union and in 2013 – 2015 was implemented in Ukraine.

The methods of identifying of multi emissions of pollution from point and plane sources were developed. For the first time quantitative estimates of emissions of radioactive contamination of all former uranium production in the city Dniprodzerzhynsk were obtained

 It was improved the model chain developed by the authors The Sea of Azov – Kerch Strait – The Black Sea – Bosporus – The Sea of Marmara – The Dardanelles. The incoming data from 1960 to 2010 were collected and analyzed. The calculation of the sea level, temperature and salinity for the period of 1960 – 2010 for inspection and calibration parameters of the model chain was done for the first time.

A new model of bottom chain supply in the Poseidon model for the description of migration of radionuclides from contaminated bottom silt to marine organisms was developed. For the first time it was calculated the accumulation of 137Cs in fish after the accident at the nuclear power plant “Fukushima” taking into account the bottom chain supply. Comparison of the obtained values ​​of concentration of 137Cs in fish from the measurement data confirmed the adequacy of the model. The developed model can be used for long-term forecasting of radiation spread in the Black Sea basin in which there are 37 nuclear power units, and evaluation of population exposure through the consumption of seafood.

There were developed new mathematical models for analysis and forecasting of radioactivity distribution in the environment, including numerical model of radionuclide migration of multigrade sediments. There were created corresponding hardware integration models in information decision support systems of environmental safety. The calculation of radioactive contamination of the Black and Baltic Seas after the Chernobyl accident and the Pacific Ocean after the accident at the nuclear power plant “Fukushima” was done.
 
For decision support systems to eliminate the effects of pollution in coastal seas it was developed a new model of bottom supply chain in chamber model POSEIDON to describe the migration of radionuclides from contaminated sediments in marine organisms. It was carried the integration of POSEIDON model into the European system of nuclear emergency RODOS.
 
For the first time with tehelp of the developed chain models of the Sea of Azov – Kerch strait – the Black Sea – Bosporus – the Marmara Sea – Dardanelles it was calculated the changes of temperature, salinity of the seas under climate change scenarios in the ХХІ century, estimates of their impact on the environment.

Automated calculations of damage areas due to emissions of hazardous substances in the air, performed using screening techniques in a pilot version of the software and system modeling operational forecasting and analysis of air pollution of Ukraine (system “Air”). The chain of models of atmospheric transferring of chemical contaminants on hundreds of kilometers from the ejection taking into account the chemical transformations was developed. 

New methods of identification of unknown sources of atmospheric emissions on a regional scale were developed on the basis of solving conjugate equations of atmospheric transport model over long distances. Implementation of developed methods of the identification of unknown sources of emissions in the European Union Nuclear Emergency Response System (RODOS) were done.

On the base of developed methods by the Institute for the identification of unknown sources of atmospheric emissions and the RODOS system, identification of possible sources of ruthenium into the atmosphere was recorded in the territory of Europe and Russia in September-October 2017. Analytical materials were prepared for the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspection of Ukraine (SNRIU) which was used by SNRIU in an official press release dated November 17, 2017 concerning the fixation of ruthenium. It was published settlement card of possible sources of origin of ruthenium (published in October 11, 2017), which was subsequently confirmed by similar materials from the
Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety, published almost in a month (November 9, 2017).

New theoretical models of radionuclide migration in the marine environment, which were used for long-term forecasting of pollution of the ocean after the accident at the Fukushima NPP were developed. The calculations and verification of models are based on observation data in the Pacific Ocean after the accident at the Fukushima NPP and in the Black and Baltic Seas after the Chernobyl accident. Research results can be used for long-term prediction of radioactive contamination of the marine environment.

The hydrodynamic model of atmospheric transport of pollution on unstructured grids is developed, taking into account the influence of urban development, suitable for estimating the spatial distribution of atmospheric pollution on a city scale (~ 10 km) and detailed to scale of individual houses and streets (~ 10 m) in the most dangerous places. Successful verification of the model was carried out on the basis of comparison with the data of field and laboratory experiments.

It was developed information web technology which allows to predict meteorological conditions in arbitrary territory with high resolution, on the basis of adaptation of modern meteorological models, technologies of cloud computing and web technologies for the task of incoming data, obtaining and visualization of the results. A pilot version of the web-based weather forecasting system on detailed grids around an arbitrary point in the globe was created and installed for testing purposes.

RODOS-Ukraine Information System for Decision Support in Accidents at Nuclear Power Plants has been adapted and implemented for the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone (CEZ) conditions and for the prediction of the consequences of fires in the Chornobyl accident. The results of the calculations of the adapted to the CEZ of the RODOS-Ukraine system have been repeatedly used in official reports of the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine during the fires in the CEZ.

The developed information technology allows predicting the atmospheric distribution of pollutants as a result of emergency emissions in a cloud infrastructure on the basis of data from models of numerical weather forecasting and web technologies for input data, obtaining and visualization of results.

It was
created an information technology for weather forecasting of agriculture based on the use of calculations of the WRF mesoscale meteorological model on detailed grids, as well as web technologies for integrating and visualizing the results of simulation and measurements.

Information technology is developed, which allows predicting the atmospheric distribution of pollution on a regional scale in conditions of large cities of Ukraine as a result of emergency emissions. The method of integration in the system of microscale hydrodynamic models of pollution distribution in the conditions of urban development is developed and substantiated.

It was built and adapted to the Bellingshausen Sea, a numerical baroclinic SCHISM circulation model with high resolution on the shelf. The comparison of the results of calculations and observations at the station “Ac. Vernadsky” was done. The circulation and divergence of the aqueous masses during the Antarctic summer period and the estimation of zones of lifting and lowering of water on the shelf of the Antarctic peninsula are calculated.

Biogeochemical models of radionuclide migration in bottom sediments were improved. Simplified modeling of radionuclide distribution in European seas has been carried out with improved models and isolated homogeneous areas for analysis of observation data collected within the framework of the project.

In 2019, using the method of reference fields, the classification of radioactivity levels calculated by the POSEIDON box model in the seas of Europe and the Far East was carried out in order to objectively identify contamination regions and average the measurement data in these regions; calculations of 137Cs pollution of the Black and Mediterranean Seas in the period 1945-2020 due to nuclear weapons tests and the Chernobyl accident were performed.

The spatiotemporal variability of temperature, salinity, currents and ice cover of the Bellingshausen Sea, the shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula, their causal relationships with ice conditions and atmospheric processes for forecasting zones of rise, lowering of waters and for assessment of industrial areas of increased biodiversity
and production value. Calculations of seasonal changes in circulation, ice distribution and divergence of water masses are performed.

Developed information technology for modeling pollution in large cities based on a chain of models of mesoscale meteorology and atmospheric dispersion, as well as the use of spectral relaxation to assimilate measurement data, which allows calculations for a long period of time without re-initialization of the model.

Adaptation of the web service for forecasting the spread of air pollution for use in cloud infrastructure and its integration into the catalog of services of the Virtual Center for Digital Science, which allows to use the development in particular to teach students modern technologies for environmental forecasting.

Statistical analysis of fires in the Ch
ernobyl Exclusion Zone (CEZ) was performed, probabilistic characteristics of fires of different intensity were calculated and the task of assessing the risks associated with environmental pollution due to fires in CEZ was formulated.

There were created some technical solutions to improve the web service for forecasting pollution due to accidental emissions in Ukraine. A software for automatic creation of a virtual machine in the cloud infrastructure was developed and tested. A transfer model to calculate the receptor-source function in the cloud infrastructure was configured. The developed technologies can be implemented in the Ukrainian meteorological center of the SES of Ukraine, as well as be used for a wider range of researchers, experts in air pollution.

With the aim of calculation of the dynamics of radionuclides in the cooling reservoir (CR) of the Chernobyl NPP, the chamber model POSEIDON_R and the three-dimensional transfer model THREETOX were set up, which will allow ontaining new data on the concentration of radionuclides in the Chernobyl NPP and the Kyiv Reservoir. A two-dimensional COASTOX model was set up to calculate the transfer of radionuclides in the floodplain of the Pripyat River. For the first time, detailed calculations of flood zones of coastal buildings in Kyiv during floods and scenarios of destruction of the hydroelectric dam were carried out.

There was built and adapted to the Bellingshausen Sea and the Drake Strait a numerical baroclinic model of circulation and ice cover. During the creation of the model tidal effects and high resolution on the shelf (up to 2 km) were taken into account which allows to predict large-scale interactions of Antarctic circumpolarity time scales from several hours up to two weeks. The developed model corresponds to the world level and can be used to predict the state of the Bellingshausen Sea and the Drake Strait for transport and research needs of the Ukrainian Antarctic Expedition and «Academician Vernadsky» station.

Modeling-reconstruction of atmospheric transfer and precipitation of radionuclides after the Chernobyl accident was carried out on the basis of the CALPUFF atmospheric transfer model and the WRF mesoscale meteorological model, and the conformity of the simulation results to the measurements was proved. The obtained simulation results can be used to analyze and predict doses for different scenarios of Chernobyl Exclusion Zone management, as well as to model the dynamics of pollution in marine and river systems caused by precipitation after the Chernobyl accident.

A new approach to modeling and forecasting the accumulation of radionuclides in fish was developed, taking into account heterogeneity of the distribution of contaminants in the body and the dependence of the metabolic processes rate on the weight of fish. A new algorithm for calculations in the numerical Lagrangian model of pollution transfer in water, silt and food chains in marine ecosystems was created. This algorithm allowed calculations of pollution transfer in different environments exclusively by Lagrangian methods. The developed modeling methods can be implemented in the Ministry of Ecology, SES, Ukrainian Meteorological Center and the State Inspectorate for Nuclear Regulation of Ukraine, as well as be used by a wide range of experts and researchers for detailed analysis of air and water pollution in Ukraine.

Methods of mathematical modeling and parameterization of research processes of transformation of water masses with different density and their influence on mixing in the World Ocean by methods of mathematical modeling and parameterization of these processeswere carried out. New dependences of wave energy dissipation during transformation on the continental slope on the characteristics of internal waves, stratification and relief were established. It became a tool for the construction of zonal maps of internal wave transformation modes for coastal and shelf zones with areas of intense mixing on the shelf, as well as the detection of new phenomena occurring during the transformation of gravitational currents on the Antarctic Peninsula shelf.

Atmospheric distribution of radionuclides during fires in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone was modeled. The maximum concentrations caused by fires in the settlements of Ukraine were estimated.

A long-term 10-year simulation of 3H radionuclide propagation due to a constant leakage from the Fukushima NPP was performed. The concentration of 3H in the surface waters of the South Pacific Ocean was investigated in order to assess the possible recirculation of pollution and return to the southern part of the Kuroshio Current. It was shown that the recirculation period is about 8-10 years.

 


  

       Last modified: Jul 6, 2021